The 2000 Tour de France will not be for the faint. The race will be 3,630 km
long. The winner will not only have survived but thrived in 21 stages, six
of which will be uphill and three of which will be time trials.
The Tour will begin with a 16-km time trial in Futuroscope, a stage which
may require a more complete time trialist than the prologue specialist.
Stages 2 and 3 will be for the sprinters, but Stage 5 will not be. It will
be a 69-km team time trial from Nantes to St. Nazaire. This event has not
been in the Tour since 1995 and has become unusual in major stage races.
After the team time trial, the sprinters reassume control of the race until
Stage 10.
Stage 10 will be the 2000 Tour's one Pyrenean stage. The riders will go over
three familiar climbs--the Col de Marie Blanque, the Col d'Aubisque, and the
Col du Soulor--before finishing with the ascent to Hautacam. After Stage 11,
the rest day, which is actually a rest and transit day, occurs.
Stage 12 takes the race to the Alps. The riders will travel from Carpentras
to Mont Ventoux, going over the Col des Murs and the Col de Notre Dames des
Abeilles before ending in the uphill run to Mont Ventoux. After a relatively
easy stage from Avignon to Draguignan, the racers enter Hell. Stages 14, 15,
and 16 will belong to the climbers, and they will say much about who wins
the Tour.
Stage 14 will feature four ascents, including the Col d'Allos, the Col de
Vars, and the Col d'Izoard. Stage 15 will be even harder, with five major
climbs, among them the Col du Galibier, the highest point in this year's
Tour at 2,645 meters, and the final climb to Courchevel. Stage 16 will
feature five major climbs. Stage 17, which will feature the Col des Mosses,
will be almost easy compared with the three stages before it.
After a transitional stage (this Tour's longest at 252 km) from Lausanne,
Switzerland to Fribourg-en-Brisgau, the riders will fight it out in a
relatively flat, 59-km individual time trial from Fribourg-en-Brisgau to
Mulhouse. The course will favor the usual time trialing suspects such as
Armstrong and Ullrich. This stage will be the riders' final chance to win or
to improve their standings because Stages 20 and 21 will favor the
sprinters.
Who will win? The road to Futuroscope has been rough for many. It has been
reasonably smooth for Lance Armstrong. His training and racing have been
consistent through the winter and spring, with only two brief interruptions
because of illness and injury. His training has gone so well that a planned
ride in the Route du Sud was cancelled because the U.S. Postal Service felt
that the Texan was right where he needed to be. He is motivated and
confident. He should win the Tour.
Abraham Olano's season has gone according to plan. Improvements in his
training and diet brought him early season success. The ONCE rider has
trained and raced quietly since then, but there is no reason to doubt his
form. There is reason, however, to question his confidence. Olano has never
lived up to expectations in the Tour de France. Much of the reason for his
failure is psychological. Olano has never ridden out from under the shadow
of Miguel Indurain. Indurain and the Tour's pressure have always proven too
much for Olano. They will this time as well.
Alex Zulle has always had the qualities to be a Tour champion. He is an
excellent time trialist and a far more than adequate climber. Supreme
success has always eluded the Swiss, however, because of his psychological
limitations and because someone always seemed to be just a little stronger.
In 1995, Zulle was second to Indurain, but he never really believed that he
could win. Last year, even without the Passage du Gois misfortune, Armstrong
outdid Zulle. The American will outdo the Swiss this time as well.
Jan Ullrich has the ability to be a Miguel Indurain, but perhaps not the
motivation. He always gets woefully out of shape during the offseason and
struggles to find his form. He seems to be getting back into shape now, but
the Alps are no place to fine tune. A top six finish will be a victory for
the German.
Marco Pantani is someone whom everyone looks to for great performances in
the mountains. He may provide them, but no one can say how many because he
may not be far enough along on the comeback trail to excel consistently. In
addition, the Italian might lose one minute in the opening time trial and
three minutes in the closing one. Pantani will provide excitement but not
victory. A top ten finish would be reasonable for him.
Bobby Julich is a very good talent. He has above average climbing and time
trialing skills. He is not, however, a good enough all-around rider to win
the Tour. In addition, his tendency to wait for others to attack instead of
doing so himself holds him back. He should do well enough to finish in the
top ten.
Jose Maria Jimenez is an excellent climber and a mediocre time trialist who
has won the Classique des Alpes and the Tour of Catalonia. He will work for
Zulle in the Tour de France, however, and will not be free to ride for
himself. Look for him to win a mountain stage, which is his stated goal, and
to finish in the top ten or twelve.
Fernando Escartin is another excellent climber who is a weak time trialist.
He should ride well enough in the mountains to finish in the top eight or
ten, but his time trialing deficiencies will prevent a return to the podium.
The top ten should look something like the following:
1. Armstrong
2. Olano
3. Zulle
4. Ullrich
5. Julich
6. Escartin
7. Jimenez
8. Pantani
9. Garzelli
10. Hamilton
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