Who
will win the 2005 Tour de France? For the seventh and final time, Lance Armstrong
(Discovery Channel) will ascend the podium in Paris
with the yellow jersey on his shoulders. Despite showing signs of lack of
fitness early in the season, the man from Austin
has come around and is ready to race at Tour time. He has undertaken his usual
pre-Tour reconnaissances of important mountain passes. Just as important,
Armstrong has a strong, experienced team supporting him. It all adds up to a
valedictory victory for the Texan.
Ivan
Basso (CSC) is a good bet for second place. The former under-23 world champion
finished third in last year’s Tour and won a mountain stage. Basso has shored up
the only weakness in his riding by improving his time trailing. The Italian
might have won this year’s Giro d’Italia if he had not suffered a stomach virus
in the Dolomites. Even so, Basso won two Alpine stages, one of them a time
trial, after recovering from the bug. To win, however, the Italian must attack
Armstrong, which he could not do last year.
Ivan Basso (Team CSC) Photo copyright Fotoreporter Sirotti.
Jan
Ullrich (T-Mobile) showed good form in the Tour de Suisse. The 1997 Tour de
France champion won a time trial stage and held his own in the mountains. Other
riders climb as well as or better than Ullrich, however, and the 2005 Tour will
have fewer time trial km than previous editions. Ullrich has a good team to
assist him in the mountains, but he will not be able to stay with Armstrong,
Basso, and possibly others. Put the German down for third.
Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile). Photo copyright Fotoreporter Sirotti.
Roberto
Heras (Liberty Seguros) was found wanting in last year’s Tour and abandoned. He
should be better in 2005. The Spaniard is a first-rate climber, and fewer time
trial km means less time lost to Armstrong, Basso, and Ullrich. Heras has a good
team to help him in the mountains, although Joseba Beloki has not regained his
form since crashing out of the 2003 Tour. Look for the three-time Vuelta winner
to ride his best-ever Tour.
Alexander
Vinokourov (T-Mobile) is a well-rounded rider who has the potential to make the
podium. Unfortunately, he will not be a free agent at the Tour. The Kazakh will
work for Jan Ullrich, which will limit his possibilities to excel. Still,
Vinokourov is talented enough to score a fifth place for
himself.
Iban
Mayo (Euskaltel) overraced before last year’s Tour and wound up beaten and sick
in the Pyrenees.
This season, the Basque rider’s buildup has been deliberate. He should be among
the best climbers, especially when he rides close to home in the
Pyrenees.
Still, Mayo is a mediocre rider against the clock, and he will not climb well
enough to make up the time that he loses in time trials. The Euskaltel rider
will finish in sixth place, which is where he finished in
2003.
Santiago
Botero (Phonak) will return to the Tour after abandoning the 2003 Tour and
missing the 2004 edition. The 2002 world time trial champion brings good form,
having won the Tour de Romandie and the Dauphine Libere’s time trial. The
Colombian brings a reputation for inconsistency as well. Look for him to win one
of the race’s two time trials, probably the first. Also look for Botero to win
an Alpine stage. Expect him to have a bad day in the Pyrenees
and drop out of contention. Seventh place will be about right for the
Colombian.
Santiago Botero (Phonak). Photo copyright Fotoreporter Sirotti.
Francisco
Mancebo (Illes Balears) is one of a trio of talented stage racers on his team,
Alejandro Valverde and Vladimir Karpets being the other two. Mancebo won the
white jersey in 2000. It is time to show more than promise. Mancebo, however,
will not do so. His time trailing is weak. He will ride just as he has always
ridden, consistently but not brilliantly, well enough for eighth
place.
Andreas
Klöden (T-Mobile) is a well-rounded rider who is good enough for ninth place. He
is capable of placing higher, but he will be chained to team captain Jan
Ullrich. Expect Klöden to climb well in a support role and to ride good time
trials.
Levi
Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner) is a good all rounder. The American, however, has two
problems. The first is a weak team. The second is an inability to stay with the
best on the toughest climbs. Leipheimer can handle the Category 1 ascents, but
he will be dropped on the Hors Categorie climbs. The latter climbs, however, are
where the Tour will be decided. Put Leipheimer down for tenth
place.
Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner). Photo copyright Roadcycling.com/Ben Ross/www.benrossphotography.com.
In
other competitions, Robbie McEwen will win his third green jersey, Santiago
Botero will be the King of the Mountains, CSC will take the team competition,
and Vladimir Karpets will win his second white jersey. From the start in
Fromentine to the finish on the Champs
Elysees,
stay current on the latest news from the Tour de France. Check in at www.roadcycling.com for cycling info as it should be!
