Tour de France 2003

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Bauer: Armstrong's "Drive for Five" will succeed unless...

By David Cohen
Jun 14, 2003, 06:32

Steve Bauer and wife Annick.

Bauer was in France to scout the route of the 2003 Tour in preparation for leading his firm's bike tours which "shadow" several stages of the Tour de France.  The Canadian cycling legend operates Steve Bauer Bike Tours Inc. with his wife and partner Annick Gies in Beamsville, Ontario, in the Niagara Peninsula.

On the Tour de France Steve Bauer speaks with some authority.  He rode in 11 straight Tours, from 1985 to 1995.  In 1988 he finished fourth overall (winner: Pedro Delgado).  In 1990, he won the yellow jersey in a time trial on the second day of the race and held on to it for 10 straight days (eventual winner: Greg Lemond).

"Frankly, I don't think there'll be much change this year -- I mean, Lance is so damn good right now," Bauer  begins. "He's at the top of his game.  Maybe even more than that..."

There are contenders, to be sure.   Bauer mentions a few names -- Joseba Beloki (ONCE), who was runner-up to Lance in the 2002 Tour, Santiago Botero (Kelme), winner of Milan- San Remo, and the 2003 Giro d'Italia winner Gilberto Simoni (Saeco).

But none of them should be able to beat Lance.  They're not even close.

Then Bauer pauses:

"But the Tour is never a given.  No one, even at his best, is guaranteed a win.  It takes three weeks to win a Tour and a day to lose it."

Armstrong remains the man to beat. 

"He's the master of a pretty big engine -- he has it all physically and in terms of technique," Bauer says.  "Lance can definitely turn a gear.  He's efficient and powerful at a high RPM".

Lance Armstrong (USPS) has credited Miguel Indurain, winner of the Tour five years in a row (1991-1995), as being the model for his high RPM style of riding.

But Bauer thinks that Armstrong is a better rider than Indurain ever was. 

"Indurain excelled at time-trialling and he tended to protect his leads in the climbs," he says.  "But Armstrong also excels at time-trialling and he can be dominant in the mountains.  He's a better all-round rider than Indurain ever was."

But what if, for one reason or another, Lance falters?  Who can step up and take the big man's place?

It's suggested to Bauer that a rider like Tyler Hamilton (CSC), winner of this year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege classic and the Tour of Romandie, could be the guy.

"I like Tyler," he says.  "He's a well-rounded rider. He can climb and he can time-trial.  And his team (Team CSC) will be 100 per cent behind him in the Tour."

Bauer thinks Hamilton is on a roll.  "Tyler did well last year in the Giro (he finished second to Paolo Savoldelli, 1' 41" behind in spite of a spectacular crash on a downhill during Stage 5).  No one was expecting that -- it was a surprise.  And his form has carried over into this season."

Bauer thinks that Hamilton and the CSC team brain trust made a good decision to skip this year's Giro to allow the rider to concentrate on the Tour. 

Steve Bauer: "Riis knows what it takes to win the Tour."

"He's the right age (32)" he says.  "And Bjarne Riis (CSC team director and former Tour winner in 1996) knows what it takes to win the Tour."

Bauer is enthusiastic about this year's course designed to mark the Tour's centenary.

"It sort of sums up the Tour," he says. "And it will provide the riders with a good test.  It's tough."

Bauer sees two critical junctures in this year's race.  The first will be Stage 8, mountain stage from Salanches to L'Alpe d'Huez.  

"When the riders reach the bottom of L'Alpe d'Huez it's likely that a lot of them will have very spongy legs," he says.   They will reach that point 196 kilometres into the race after three previous climbs -- none of which is a pushover.

Bauer mentions especially Col du Telegraphe, 12.1 km of climb at a nearly 7% grade, and Col du Galibier, 18.5 km at a suffering 8.7% grade.

"Stage 8 will establish who is in control," predicts Bauer.  "You can get pretty demoralized after a climb like Col du Telegraphe, never mind Alpe d'Huez."

A second key to the race will be the 42.5-km time trial in State 12, from Gaillac to Cap Decouverteat.

"It's unusual to have a time trial plunked down in between the Alps and the Pyrenees with a mountain stage the very next day," Bauer says. "There will be a build up of lactic acid in the riders' legs during that time trial.  And the next day they are expected to climb.  Some guys will not have a very good day during Stage 13."

Stage 13, 197.5 km long, features a climb of Col de Pailheres (15. km, 7.8%) and finishes with a climb of Plateau de Bonsacre (9.1 km, 7.2%).

Bauer expects that the last time trial, Porinc to Nantes (Stage 19, 49 km) will not mean much to the race.  "It should be over by then, maybe even earlier."

And just before he hangs up, Bauer considers another contender, Jan Ullrich.  "A very good rider with great natural ability but I don't think he has been at his best since winning the Tour (in 1997)" he opines. "But at his best he could be a real contender . . . . Let's see."

And then the name of Gilberto Simoni comes up again.   After all, he won this year's Giro in convincing fashion.   The Italian rider has been quoted as saying he plans to lay a "trap" for Armstrong who, he claims, has not had very convincing competition in this four Tour wins, especially in the mountains.

This caused Bauer to reflect on the Giro.  "When I was first starting out in the 80's the Giro was tailored for sprinters," he recalls.   "Good recuperation was planned between mountain stages.  But in recent years the Giro has become more difficult, more like the Tour de France.   Which is why it's a lot harder these days to do the Giro and the Tour back-to-back."

And what about Marco Pantani, even though it appears he may not find a place on a team in the race?   He once was one of Armstrong's leading climbing threats.

"Oh, he might challenge for a day or two," Bauer said.  "Nothing more than that."

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