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philosopher Thomas Hobbes described human life in a state of nature as “nasty,
cruel, brutish, and short.” At 3,604 km, the 2005 Tour de France will be all of
these except short. The race will feature three mountaintop finishes, 74 km of
individual time trials, a 67.5-km team time trial, and 20 Category 2, Category
1, and Hors Categorie climbs. La Grande Boucle will not end soon enough for
those who start it. The
2005 Tour de France will not begin with a prologue. Instead, the riders will
tackle a 19-km individual time trial from Fromentine to Noirmoutier en l’Ile.
Lance Armstrong (Discovery Channel) and Bobby Julich and Ivan Basso (both from
CSC) should excel in the race of truth. Stages
2 and 3 should end in sprints, with the second stage running from Challans to
Les Essarts and the third going from La Chataigneraie to Stage
4 will be the race’s first test of strength for the teams. The stage will be a
67.5-km team time trial from Stages
5 to 8 will be stages for flatlanders. Stage 5 will go from
In
Stage 9, the Tour will enter the After
the rest day, the riders will take on the Stages
12 and 13 will be transitional stages. The former will be hilly and will run 187
km from Briancon to Digne-les-Bains. Expect Frenchmen such as David Moncoutie
(Cofidis) or Didier Rous (Bouygues Telecom) to try to escape for a win on
Bastille Day. The latter will be a 162-km run from Miramas to
Stage
14 will run 220 km from Agde to Ax-3 Domaines. The stage will feature two
climbs, the Port de Pailheres and the finishing ascent. Stage 15 will be the
hardest stage of the 2005 Tour. It will feature six categorized ascents,
including a finishing climb. Stages 14 and 15 will end in donnybrooks on the
final climb. In Stage 16, the final Pyrenean stage, the riders will breast four
categorized climbs within 70 km in midstage. Lance Armstrong, Ivan Basso, Levi
Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner), Iban Mayo (Euskaltel), and Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile)
will battle for victory and the maillot jaune in Stages 14 and 15, while
a small group might battle for the day’s honors in Stage
16. Stages
17 to 19 will be for the sprinters. Stage 17 will be a 239-km run from
Stage
20 will be a 55-km time trial at St. Etienne. Armstrong, Ullrich, Basso, and
Santiago Botero (Phonak) will fight for the stage win. It will be the final
chance to take the yellow jersey or to claim a higher spot in the general
classification. Stage 21, the final stage, will be a 169-km run from
Corbeil-Essonnes to the Who
will win the Tour de France? For the seventh and final time, Lance Armstrong
(Discovery Channel) will ascend the podium in Ivan
Basso (CSC) is a good bet for second place. The former under-23 world champion
finished third in last year’s Tour and won a mountain stage. Basso has shored up
the only weakness in his riding by improving his time trailing. The Italian
might have won this year’s Giro d’Italia if he had not suffered a stomach virus
in the Dolomites. Even so, Basso won two Alpine stages, one of them a time
trial, after recovering from the bug. To win, however, the Italian must attack
Armstrong, which he could not do last year. Jan
Ullrich (T-Mobile) showed good form in the Tour de Suisse. The 1997 Tour de
France champion won a time trial stage and held his own in the mountains. Other
riders climb as well as or better than Ullrich, however, and the 2005 Tour will
have fewer time trial km than previous editions. Ullrich has a good team to
assist him in the mountains, but he will not be able to stay with Armstrong,
Basso, and possibly others. Put the German down for third. Roberto
Heras (Liberty Seguros) was found wanting in last year’s Tour and abandoned. He
should be better in 2005. The Spaniard is a first-rate climber, and fewer time
trial km means less time lost to Armstrong, Basso, and Ullrich. Heras has a good
team to help him in the mountains, although Joseba Beloki has not regained his
form since crashing out of the 2003 Tour. Look for the three-time Vuelta winner
to ride his best-ever Tour. Alexander
Vinokourov (T-Mobile) is a well-rounded rider who has the potential to make the
podium. Unfortunately, he will not be a free agent at the Tour. The Kazakh will
work for Jan Ullrich, which will limit his possibilities to excel. Still,
Vinokourov is talented enough to score a fifth place for
himself. Iban
Mayo (Euskaltel) overraced before last year’s Tour and wound up beaten and sick
in the Santiago
Botero (Phonak) will return to the Tour after abandoning the 2003 Tour and
missing the 2004 edition. The 2002 world time trial champion brings good form,
having won the Tour de Romandie and the Dauphine Libere’s time trial. The
Colombian brings a reputation for inconsistency as well. Look for him to win one
of the race’s two time trials, probably the first. Also look for Botero to win
an Alpine stage. Expect him to have a bad day in the Francisco
Mancebo (Illes Balears) is one of a trio of talented stage racers on his team,
Alejandro Valverde and Vladimir Karpets being the other two. Mancebo won the
white jersey in 2000. It is time to show more than promise. Mancebo, however,
will not do so. His time trailing is weak. He will ride just as he has always
ridden, consistently but not brilliantly, well enough for eighth
place. Andreas
Klöden (T-Mobile) is a well-rounded rider who is good enough for ninth place. He
is capable of placing higher, but he will be chained to team captain Jan
Ullrich. Expect Klöden to climb well in a support role and to ride good time
trials. Levi
Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner) is a good all rounder. The American, however, has two
problems. The first is a weak team. The second is an inability to stay with the
best on the toughest climbs. Leipheimer can handle the Category 1 ascents, but
he will be dropped on the Hors Categorie climbs. The latter climbs, however, are
where the Tour will be decided. Put Leipheimer down for tenth
place. In
other competitions, Robbie McEwen will win his third green jersey, Santiago
Botero will be the King of the Mountains, CSC will take the team competition,
and Vladimir Karpets will win his second white jersey. From the start in
Fromentine to the finish on the 
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